Sink or Swim?: Key Outcomes from COP28

COP28 marked a critical juncture for global climate action. While findings from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s first Global Stocktake underlined the need for governments and organisations to take profoundly ambitious and urgent climate action as an environmental and economic imperative, COP28 negotiations continued to navigate a plethora of diplomatic and governance issues in the realisation of global sustainability goals.

In light of the context and urgency surrounding COP28, the outcomes agreed by attending Parties have been dubbed by many in the international community as being “too little, too late”. Paradoxically, many discussions on central themes – including fossil fuels, climate finance and sustainable agriculture – have yielded outcomes that are both pivotal for global decarbonisation and, at the same time, fall distinctly short of what’s needed to secure a 2°C climate future. Actions to address the current 2030 Emissions Gap and other shortfalls under the Paris Agreement are far from established. However, COP28 has generated new momentum for climate action within the global community.

Critical outcomes for fossil fuels

Fossil fuel discussions featured extensively throughout COP28 and were fuelled mainly by the findings from the first Global Stocktake, which call emphatically for an urgent and drastic overhaul of global energy systems. While it is too early to gauge the practical impact these discussions will have on addressing the 2030 Emissions Gap or longer-term achievement of the Paris Agreement goals, COP28 has produced several noteworthy outcomes for the global energy transition:

• 130 countries, including Australia, committed to the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge at the outset of COP28, declaring their intent to work collaboratively and expeditiously to achieve global energy outcomes necessary to meet the Paris Agreement 2°C goal, including:

  • Tripling global installed renewable energy generation capacity to at least 11,000 GW by 2030, taking into consideration different starting points and national circumstances;

  • Doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements from around 2% to over 4% every year until 2030; and

  • Putting the principle of energy efficiency as the "first fuel” at the core of policymaking, planning, and significant investment decisions [1].

• The UAE Consensus has established the need for all countries to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, [and] accelerate action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050.” [2] Historically, this reference to “fossil fuels” includes oil and gas, whereas previous COP outcomes have only included coal. This commitment represents a collective global aspiration, but is not a legally binding agreement for climate action.

• The COP decision has also called for countries to deploy demand-side interventions to address road transport emissions that prioritise increasing access to public transport and safe cycling infrastructure. The decision highlights the need for governments to pursue holistic, systems-based approaches to transport and infrastructure policy and investment that go beyond adopting zero emissions vehicles to consider the broader implications that transport behaviours have on a nation’s emissions profile.

• The wider international community has criticised COP28 decisions, citing several “loopholes” for the fossil fuel industry that undermine decarbonisation efforts. Some parties have criticised the decision as lending support to “transitional fuels” (i.e., natural gas) [3], while others have called out signatory governments for continuing to support fossil fuel exports to international markets [4, 5]. Many have called out fossil fuel decisions for placing undue emphasis on Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies without recognising the significant technological and economic limitations of CCS or the current scale of global deployment [4, 3, 5].

• The Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter was endorsed by 52 companies in the oil and gas sector, who committed to the goal of achieving net-zero emissions in their operations by 2050, as well as near-zero methane emissions, and no routine flaring by 2030. The Charter has been criticised by the international community, including the World Resources Institute, for failing to address the sale of fossil fuels, which accounts for 95% of the oil and gas industry’s contribution to the climate crisis [6].

Critical outcomes for climate finance

The findings of the first Global Stocktake highlighted the need for widespread, systematic and rapid redirection of global finance flows to support climate action in developing countries. COP28 discussions made progress in securing new climate finance commitments from developed countries. However, many more complex concerns were not sufficiently addressed, with some tabled for ongoing discussion throughout 2024:

• The Loss and Damage Fund was fully operationalised on Day 1 of the COP28 summit, with countries including the UAE, Germany, the UK, Japan and the United States pledging $792 million the fund and funding arrangements [7]. Negotiators invited the World Bank to host the fund, who has yet to determine if it can accept the conditions laid out or issue a response [3]. Parties have agreed that the UN’s Office of Disaster Risk Reduction and Office for Project Services will host the Santiago Network on Loss and Damage – which will be established to provide technical assistance to vulnerable developing countries – however, funding has yet to be secured.

• The second replenishment of the Green Climate Fund received $3.5 billion in new pledges, bringing the total to $12.8 billion in climate support for developing companies. The new total exceeds the first replenishment of the fund by 28%. COP28 pledges have yet to materialise as financial disbursements, and fund managers must now rise to the challenge of securing high-quality investments that meet developing countries’ needs [3].

• 13 countries signed the UAE Leaders’ Declaration on a Global Climate Finance Framework, which has established ten principles for available, accessible and affordable investment in climate action. Signatories include the UK, United States and UAE [8].

• A new climate finance goal, the New Collective Qualitative Goal (NCQG) has been tabled for COP29. The NCQG will replace developed countries’ 2009 commitment to provide US$100 billion annually in climate finance to developing nations [3].

Critical outcomes for sustainable agriculture

COP28 facilitated global discussions on sustainable food systems and agriculture in a real and meaningful way that has not occurred at any previous Conference of Parties:

• 159 nations signed the COP28 UAE Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action, agreeing to integrate food and food systems into their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) emissions targets by 2025 and to demonstrate their progress at COP29 and COP30 [3, 9]. Signatories cover approximately 80% of the global landmass and include major agricultural emitters such as Argentina, Brazil, China, the EU, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, and the United States.

• The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) announced its new Food Systems Roadmap to bring emissions from food production in line with global climate goals. The Roadmap highlights key milestones to halve food waste emissions, reduce emissions from livestock by 25%, and achieve zero net deforestation globally by 2030. It emphasises the need to expand biodiversity in crop cultivation and promote responsible agricultural management practices that service local communities [10].

• Agricultural lobbyists attended COP28 in record numbers, and summit negotiators have been chastised for overrepresenting the corporate interests of the meat and dairy industry. Organisations such as the International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems and the Natural Resources Defence Council have criticised negotiators’ decision to omit key messaging on food system transformation from the final Global Stocktake document, citing this as a betrayal of urgency and a key barrier in bringing agricultural emissions into global conversations about climate mitigation [9].

The bottom line

While COP28 has generated ongoing international momentum for climate action, the summit has not delivered a course correction that is yet sufficient to avert the global climate crisis. As 2030 looms, countries, including Australia, must now reconcile their policy and investment agendas to reflect new commitments made at COP28 and growing international expectations to deliver urgent and meaningful climate outcomes for their communities. Governments now face the challenge of efficiently and effectively translating COP28 outcomes into existing or new policy, planning, and investment decision-making frameworks to provide clear signals for markets and businesses ahead of COP29.

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References

[1] COP28 UAE, Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge, Dubai, 2023.

[2] COP28 Presidency, “COP28 The UAE Consensus,” Dubai, 2023.

[3] D. Waskow, J. Layke, N. Warszawski, P. Bhandari, G. Swaby, N. Alayza, J. Srouji, M. J. Díaz, E. L. Davey, R. Van den Berg, R. Czebiniak, P. Langer and N. Cogswell, “Unpacking COP28: Key Outcomes from the Dubai Climate Talks, and What Comes Next,” World Resources Institute, 17 December 2023.

[4] J. Quiggin, “COP28 deal confirms what Australia already knows: coal is out of vogue and out of time,” 15 December 2023.

[5] E. Kolbert, “What Did COP28 Really Accomplish?,” The New Yorker, 13 December 2023.

[6] World Resources Institute, “STATEMENT: Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter Unveiled,” 2 December 2023.

[7] COP28 UAE, “Press Release: COP28 Presidency unites the world on Loss and Damage,” 30 November 2023.

[8] COP28 UAE, “UAE Leaders’ Declaration on a Global Climate Finance Framework,” December 2023.

[9] W. Bauck, “'Food is finally on the table': COP28 addressed agriculture in a real way,” The Guardian, 18 December 2023.

[10] Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, “Achieving SDG 2 without breaching the 1.5 °C threshold: A global roadmap,” 2023.

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